近日，我院吴方卫教授团队合作论文“Spatial dependencies in the relationship between automation and migrant worker employment: Evidence from Chinese Cities（自动化与农民工空间重置：来自中国城市的证据）”在经济学领域国际知名期刊《Economic Modelling》上在线发表。我院2020届博士毕业生闫周府（现为上海海洋大学副教授）为论文第一作者，吴方卫教授为论文通讯作者。
论文研究了工业自动化对中国农村流动人口就业的影响，重点分析了中国工业自动化进程与农村劳动力迁移规模之间的关联及其空间溢出效应。研究发现：自动化显著降低了当地农村流动人口的就业数量，同时为邻近城市带来积极的溢出效应。自动化促进了高科技企业集群的形成与技能升级，从而创造技能溢价并导致劳动力外流。同时，自动化增强了相邻城市之间的产业联系和结构性相似性，从而促进了积极的发展溢出效应。
文章摘要分享如下：
China is exceptional in the speed of automation and the extent of rural labor migration. We investigate the impact of industrial automation on rural migrant employment in China, with a focus on spatial spillover effects. We used city-level employment data from 2011 to 2018 and industrial robot adoption as a proxy for automation, and applied a Spatial Durbin Model. We find that automation significantly reduces local rural migrant employment while generating positive spillovers in neighboring cities. These effects vary by migrants’ skills, tasks, industries, migration types, age, and marital status. Mechanism analyses reveal that automation fosters high-tech enterprise clustering and skill upgrading, creating skill premiums and labor outflows. Simultaneously, automation strengthens industrial linkages and structural similarity across neighboring cities, facilitating positive spillovers. The findings inform inter-regional policies aimed at stabilizing rural migrant employment and well-being amid technological transformation.
2026年《Economic Modelling》
